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Trade set for trillion-dollar milestone
For the first time in its history, Việt Nam is within striking distance of a $1 trillion annual trade milestone. What began four decades ago with a modest $1 billion in exports has evolved into a dynamic, high-tech economy powering global supply chains.
With record demand, expanded production, and a wave of industrial investment, Việt Nam is moving rapidly from an agricultural exporter to a manufacturing powerhouse – and the world is taking notice.
In the past 11 months of 2025, Việt Nam’s total trade reached $839.75 billion, up 17.2 per cent year-on-year. Forecasts suggest the economy could close the year with $910–920 billion in import–export revenue.
From an economy once reliant on agricultural and low-value goods, Việt Nam has transformed into a regional centre for manufacturing and high-tech exports. This shift has expanded trade at record speed, demonstrating not only rising production strength but also a major leap in competitiveness and value creation.
In 2024, Việt Nam’s trade turnover was projected to reach $780–800 billion – one of the strongest years in its modern trade history – thanks to recovering global demand, Government efforts to diversify markets, and the agility of domestic firms amid global volatility.
The steady upward trajectory has set the foundation for Việt Nam to potentially hit the $1 trillion mark, positioning it among the world’s 15 largest trading economies. The milestone is more than symbolic; it affirms Việt Nam’s emerging role in global supply chains.
A defining feature of this year’s performance is the dominance of high-tech exports, which now account for 70.3 per cent of total export value. This marks a clear transition from natural-resource-driven growth to value-added, technology-intensive industries.
Eight product groups exceeded $10 billion in export value: electronics, computers, mobile phones, machinery and equipment, textiles and garments, footwear, wood products, transport vehicles, and seafood.
These sectors have not only expanded in volume but have also penetrated global production networks. Việt Nam has become a critical manufacturing hub for electronics, with companies like Samsung, Intel, LG and Foxconn anchoring large-scale supply chains in the country.
The rising number of export categories surpassing the $10 billion threshold underscores Việt Nam’s evolution beyond low-cost assembly into a producer of sophisticated, deeply processed industrial goods.
Meanwhile, a network of free trade agreements has delivered substantial competitive advantages. Tariff preferences have enhanced the appeal of Vietnamese goods in key markets, while imports of machinery, inputs and technology have strengthened domestic manufacturing capacity.
A long road
Vietnamese firms have quickly adapted to cross-border e-commerce and data-driven supply chain management, opening new channels for online exports. Over 10,000 OCOP (One Commune, One Speciality Product) products – if upgraded in packaging, quality and digital readiness – could become strategic export lines, replicating the success of South Korea and Thailand in elevating their agricultural specialties.
In the last months of this year alone, trade turnover has surged past all previous projections. While the Ministry of Industry and Trade had expected total trade to reach roughly $800 billion for the year, the figure surpassed that level by mid-November.
Maintaining the current growth pace would place total trade for 2025 between $900 billion and $920 billion, and under favourable conditions, Việt Nam could even reach the $1 trillion benchmark.
Achieving this milestone would confirm Việt Nam’s status as a new manufacturing and export hub in Asia, further strengthening its ability to attract high-quality FDI in electronics, high-tech industries, green energy and logistics.
The near-$1 trillion moment stands in stark contrast to Việt Nam’s starting point. Four decades ago, the country’s total trade value was just around $1 billion, largely made up of rice, coffee, rubber, handicrafts and a limited selection of light industrial goods. Domestic production was fragmented, supply chains were almost nonexistent, and the concept of industrial exports had yet to take shape.
By the 1990s, as Việt Nam shifted to a socialist-oriented market economy, national trade statistics were gradually standardised. Though exports grew, they remained low compared with regional peers, dominated by agricultural and mineral products.
The real turning point came in the 2000s, when FDI capital began flowing strongly into Việt Nam, reshaping the industrial base and allowing local exporters to meet global standards.
In 2007, shortly after joining the WTO, Việt Nam surpassed the $100 billion trade milestone for the first time. By November that year, the total had reached $99.7 billion, and within days of December it crossed $100 billion, ending the year at $111.2 billion.
Despite the achievement, exports in 2007 were still primarily agricultural and low-value industrial goods. High-tech manufacturing had yet to emerge as a major driver.
Trade accelerated in the following years. Việt Nam hit the $200 billion mark in December 2011, reflecting the expansion of major FDI-powered industries such as electronics, textiles, footwear and food processing. The subsequent milestone of $300 billion was reached in November 2016, underscoring the growing technical and logistical demands of global competition.
Strong foundations
Viewed over the long term, Việt Nam’s trade journey resembles a parabolic curve: from $1 billion in the mid-1980s, to $100 billion in 2007, then rising steadily and now approaching the $1 trillion threshold.
The difference between the early years and today illustrates a profound economic reconfiguration – from exporting raw materials and basic goods to exporting advanced technology and deeply processed industrial products.
Today, high-tech goods make up over 70 per cent of total exports, showing that Việt Nam is not only expanding its trade volume but also climbing the global value chain.
Việt Nam has moved from a resource-dependent, low-income economy to a mid-industrial nation competing among the world’s major trading powers. Sustaining current momentum could usher in a new phase in which Việt Nam emerges as a modern, high-tech, export-driven economy capable of challenging the world’s largest manufacturing hubs.
With a dynamic growth model, Việt Nam is solidifying its position in regional and global supply chains. International institutions have increasingly revised their forecasts upward. Singapore’s UOB recently raised Việt Nam’s 2025 GDP growth projection from 7.5 per cent to 7.7 per cent, citing robust trade activity and strengthening industrial output.
According to UOB, Việt Nam will play an increasingly important role internationally over the next decade. Sustained growth is enhancing the country’s position as a key node in regional and global production networks, especially in manufacturing and emerging technologies.
As an active ASEAN member, Việt Nam is expected to contribute further to regional stability and economic cooperation, with its extensive free trade network and strategic geographic location providing strong advantages in global trade discussions.
“The manufacturing sector is expanding, and trade scale is rising. Việt Nam cannot continue selling cheap. We must move toward value creation, supply chain innovation and building a national brand,” said Võ Trí Thành, PhD, director of the Institute for Brand and Competitiveness Strategy.
He added that Việt Nam’s fundamentals remained strong thanks to steady industrial growth, increased FDI inflows into electronics and semiconductors, and new opportunities from free trade. However, the next stage of development would require deeper processing in agriculture and fisheries, greater investment in R&D, stronger branding efforts, and compliance with green standards in industrial production.
As trade expands, Vietnamese exporters would also face more trade-remedy measures from importing markets. Businesses must therefore remain proactive in adapting to global shifts, maximising the advantages of open trade while minimising risks. — VNS
OTHER NEWS
Sweden imported from Vietnam
| Products | 11M/2024 | 11M/2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All products (USD) | 951,652,470 | 1,187,780,274 | 24.8 |
| Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates | 20,569,902 | 31,402,189 | 52.7 |
| Plastic products | 19,115,033 | 17,181,397 | -10.1 |
| Rubber | 564,378 | 494,424 | -12.4 |
| Bags, purses, suitcases, hats, umbrellas | 26,011,374 | 25,699,987 | -1.2 |
| Products of rattan, bamboo, sedge and carpet | 8,763,524 | 8,672,413 | -1.0 |
| Wood and articles of wood | 20,521,399 | 26,488,401 | 29.1 |
| Textiles and garments | 89,145,768 | 145,572,322 | 63.3 |
| Footwears, parts of such articles | 57,293,633 | 77,770,498 | 35.7 |
| Materials for textiles and garments, and footwares | 5,239,214 | 3,958,248 | -24.4 |
| Ceramic products | 2,151,594 | 1,215,764 | -43.5 |
| Articles of iron or steel | 10,955,559 | 57,617,135 | 425.9 |
| Other metals and products | 806,661 | 2,303,386 | 185.5 |
| Computers, electrical products, part thereof | 91,511,407 | 146,454,131 | 60.0 |
| Telephone sets, parts thereof | 325,719,587 | 338,068,033 | 3.8 |
| Machinery, mechanical appliances, equipment, parts thereof | 107,874,160 | 140,927,245 | 30.6 |
| Toys, sports equipment and parts | 9,617,599 | 12,619,105 | 31.2 |
Sweden exported to Vietnam
| Products | 11M/2024 | 11M/2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All products (USD) | 392,002,416 | 450,795,036 | 15.0 |
| Other petroleum products | 2,496,791 | 4,431,245 | 77.5 |
| Chemical products | 11,166,404 | 14,996,695 | 34.3 |
| Pharmaceutical products | 108,183,245 | 141,565,529 | 30.9 |
| Plastic materials | 2,937,296 | 2,983,492 | 1.6 |
| Plastic products | 6,153,186 | 7,061,804 | 14.8 |
| Wood and articles of wood | 4,935,147 | 4,432,618 | -10.2 |
| Paper products | 36,825,798 | 54,658,891 | 48.4 |
| Iron or steel | 12,973,795 | 18,251,096 | 40.7 |
| Articles of iron or steel | 7,548,457 | 14,384,169 | 90.6 |
| Computers, electrical products, part thereof | 5,650,892 | 4,543,718 | -19.6 |
| Telephone sets, parts thereof | 62,929 | 32,656 | -48,1 |
| Other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts | 129,692,869 | 116,019,388 | -10.5 |
| Other commodity | 63,375,608 | 67,393,335 | 6.3 |
Denmark imported from Vietnam
| Products | 11T/2024 | 11T/2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All products (USD) | 400,249,897 | 381,061,000 | -4.8 |
| Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates | 46,622,128 | 44,734,593 | -4.0 |
| Coffee | 3,534,530 | 8,071,686 | 128.4 |
| Plastic products | 23,548,939 | 21,840,601 | -7.3 |
| Bags, purses, suitcases, hats, umbrellas | 14,643,166 | 9,759,266 | -33.4 |
| Products of rattan, bamboo, sedge and carpet | 6,008,137 | 6,404,602 | 6.6 |
| Wood and articles of wood | 30,470,651 | 29,063,910 | -4.6 |
| Textiles and garments | 60,596,034 | 53,899,237 | -11.1 |
| Footwears, parts of such articles | 20,837,593 | 24,065,401 | 15.5 |
| Ceramic products | 3,998,901 | 5,407,778 | 35.2 |
| Articles of iron or steel | 43,671,836 | 31,314,568 | -28.3 |
| Other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts | 18,847,770 | 32,034,045 | 70.0 |
| Electric wires and cables | 28,681,439 | 28,110,454 | -2.0 |
| Transport vehicles and spare parts | 5,981,222 | 7,315,551 | 22.3 |
| Furniture products from materials other than wood | 24,589,360 | 19,728,623 | -19.8 |
| Toys, sports equipment and parts | 4,712,890 | 7,204,694 | 52.9 |
Denmark exported to Vietnam
| Products | 11T/2024 | 11T/2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All products (USD) | 213,879,324 | 256,614,946 | 20.0 |
| Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates | 8,638,632 | 19,241,972 | 122.7 |
| Milk and dairy products | 4,935,304 | 7,338,064 | 48.7 |
| Other food preparations | 11,121,456 | 10,853,169 | -2,4 |
| Chemical products | 23,474,487 | 26,229,734 | 11.7 |
| Pharmaceutical products | 21,214,297 | 25,330,363 | 19.4 |
| Plastic products | 10,523,973 | 14,587,172 | 38.6 |
| Materials for textiles and garments, and footwares | 300,414 | 713,290 | 137.4 |
| Iron or steel | 145,216 | 112,229 | -22.7 |
| Articles of iron or steel | 6,012,916 | 9,535,403 | 58.6 |
| Computers, electrical products, part thereof | 5,054,880 | 5,934,340 | 17.4 |
| Other machinery, equipment. tools and spare parts | 68,207,365 | 71,352,638 | 4.6 |
| Electric wires and cables | 2,384,397 | 2,812,118 | 17.9 |
| Other commodity | 51,865,986 | 62,574,453 | 20.6 |
Norway imported from Vietnam
| Products | 11T/2024 | 11T/2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All products (USD) | 121,391,338 | 186,749,769 | 53.8 |
| Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates | 8,800,226 | 16,775,185 | 90.6 |
| Fruits and vegetables | 2,982,225 | 3,987,890 | 33.7 |
| Cashew nuts | 7,317,053 | 10,375,610 | 41.8 |
| Plastic products | 2,637,179 | 2,563,080 | -2.8 |
| Bags, purses, suitcases, hats, umbrellas | 7,227,950 | 8,379,703 | 15.9 |
| Wood and articles of wood | 2,411,357 | 2,360,250 | -2.1 |
| Textiles and garments | 9,397,135 | 12,721,086 | 35.4 |
| Footwears, parts of such articles | 16,906,250 | 18,334,086 | 8.4 |
| Articles of iron or steel | 1,325,613 | 1,139,388 | -14.0 |
| Cameras, camcorders and components | 4,463,546 | 9,804,458 | 119.7 |
| Other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts | 12,739,691 | 9,762,320 | -23.4 |
| Transport vehicles and spare parts | 8,292,808 | 37,887,950 | 356.9 |
| Furniture products from materials other than wood | 2,546,435 | 2,033,531 | -20.1 |
Norway exported to Vietnam
| Products | 11T/2024 | 11T/2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All products (USD) | 455,446,399 | 566,920,221 | 24.5 |
| Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates | 277,056,983 | 338,761,646 | 22.3 |
| Chemical products | 4,413,667 | 4,506,574 | 2.1 |
| Fertilizers | 37,437,421 | 38,776,868 | 3.6 |
| Articles of iron or steel | 7,986,280 | 9,408,154 | 17.8 |
| Other machinery, equipment. tools and spare parts | 70,724,487 | 110,749,685 | 56.6 |
| Other commodity | 57,827,561 | 64,717,293 | 11.9 |
OTHER NEWS
EVFTA ‘Opens the door’ to the Nordics: Vietnamese enterprises need to go further through rules of origin
After five years of the EVFTA taking effect, Vietnamese enterprises’ capacity to comply with rules of origin and manage Certificates of Origin (C/O) dossiers has improved, opening up opportunities to maintain market presence and integrate more deeply into Nordic supply chains.
A reporter from Cong Thuong (Industry and Trade) Newspaper spoke with Ms. Nguyen Thi Hoang Thuy, Director General and Commercial Counsellor of the Vietnam Trade Office in Sweden, concurrently in charge of the Nordic markets, on this issue.
How ready are Vietnamese enterprises for Nordic rules of origin?
– Madam, based on your direct work and support for Vietnamese enterprises accessing the Nordic market, how does the Trade Office assess enterprises’ readiness in complying with rules of origin and organizing dossiers for Certificates of Origin (C/O)? What concrete benefits has compliance brought so far for Vietnamese goods in penetrating and expanding market share in the Nordic region?
Ms. Nguyen Thi Hoang Thuy:
After five years of the EVFTA’s implementation, it can be said that Vietnamese enterprises’ capacity to comply with rules of origin and prepare C/O dossiers when exporting to the Nordics has improved markedly, especially among regular exporters and sectors with relatively stable supply chains. Many enterprises have become more proactive in controlling raw material sources, retaining documentation, and engaging early with import partners on origin requirements.
Good compliance with rules of origin benefits Vietnamese goods in two ways. First is the direct tariff benefit, helping reduce costs and enhance competitiveness. Second—and increasingly important in the Nordic markets—is the market benefit: enterprises with clear and transparent origin dossiers are often rated higher by partners in terms of reliability and long-term cooperation potential.
For example, in textiles and footwear, many enterprises that have effectively leveraged the EVFTA have maintained stable orders with Swedish importers, even during periods of EU market slowdown. In the furniture sector, enterprises that effectively control legal timber sources and EVFTA origin tend to access larger distribution chains more easily than suppliers competing solely on price.
The biggest “bottleneck” in enterprises’ origin compliance chains
– Given the Nordic region’s strong emphasis on transparency, sustainability, and traceability, where does the Trade Office observe the biggest “bottleneck” for Vietnamese enterprises in the compliance chain—from raw material organization and meeting rules of origin to building and managing documentation systems?
Ms. Nguyen Thi Hoang Thuy:
From the Nordic market perspective, the biggest challenge does not lie solely in the rules of origin or C/O procedures themselves, but in the lack of synchronization between raw material sourcing, origin rules, and documentation systems. Many enterprises may technically meet origin criteria, but have not yet built sufficiently robust management systems to consistently demonstrate compliance when partners request traceability or when post-clearance audits occur.
In practice, importers do not only ask whether a C/O is available; they often require enterprises to clearly explain the value chain: where raw materials come from, how they are managed, and whether they are segregated from non-EVFTA-compliant inputs. If documentation is prepared on a shipment-by-shipment basis and lacks a systemic approach, enterprises can easily face difficulties.
For instance, in processed food, many enterprises meet origin rules but lack linkage between C/O dossiers and internal traceability systems, leading to additional explanations being required. Meanwhile, enterprises that invested early in traceability systems enjoy clear advantages when working with Nordic retail chains.
EVFTA preferences: Advantages are sustainable only when tied to long-term strategies – Utilizing origin preferences under the EVFTA and other new-generation FTAs is expected to create clear competitive advantages for Vietnamese goods in the Nordic markets. How does the Trade Office assess the actual effectiveness of this utilization, particularly in terms of market retention, order expansion, and building long-term partnerships with Nordic counterparts?
Ms. Nguyen Thi Hoang Thuy:
Utilizing EVFTA origin preferences has brought positive effects for Vietnamese goods in the Nordic markets, but these effects are most evident among enterprises that view the EVFTA as part of a long-term strategy rather than merely a tool for reducing tariffs on individual shipments.
In practice, enterprises that make effective use of preferential C/Os tend to maintain more stable market presence, face fewer order disruptions, and enjoy stronger positions in negotiations with partners. According to EU-wide statistics, Vietnam’s EVFTA utilization rate has increased steadily over the years, though significant room for improvement remains compared to the actual potential of many sectors.
In the Nordic markets, the advantage of the EVFTA lies not only in tariff rates, but also in helping Vietnamese enterprises be perceived as partners with strong compliance capabilities. This is particularly important as Nordic importers increasingly tighten sustainability, environmental, and social responsibility criteria when selecting suppliers.
Sectors with remaining potential and the Trade Office’s support role
– According to the Trade Office, which sectors or products of Vietnam still have substantial potential in the Nordic markets if enterprises effectively exploit C/O preferences and rules of origin? Going forward, what promotion and support priorities will the Trade Office focus on to help enterprises better leverage these advantages?
Ms. Nguyen Thi Hoang Thuy:
In the Nordic markets, beyond traditional export items, there remains significant potential for Vietnamese products if enterprises effectively leverage origin preferences and establish systematic compliance. These include value-added processed foods, agricultural products, deeply processed seafood, furniture and interior products with a focus on design and sustainability, environmentally friendly textiles, and certain light industrial products with stable supply chains.
Nordic consumers care not only about price, but place strong emphasis on origin, environmental impact, and social responsibility. Vietnamese enterprises that can build origin dossiers integrated with traceability and sustainability frameworks often enjoy clear advantages when approaching importers and major distribution systems in the region.
In the coming period, the Vietnam Trade Office in the Nordic region will continue to prioritize substantive and focused support for enterprises. This includes, first and foremost, providing updated market information with in-depth analysis tailored to the specific requirements of each segment and product group. On that basis, the Trade Office will enhance selective matchmaking between Vietnamese enterprises and suitable Nordic partners, importers, and distribution systems to improve market entry effectiveness.
– Thank you very much!
Through information dissemination, advisory services, and business connectivity, the Trade Office helps Vietnamese enterprises better identify requirements related to origin, traceability, and sustainability standards—factors that are increasingly decisive in the Nordic markets—thereby proactively strengthening their internal capabilities. The objective is not merely to bring products into the market, but to support Vietnamese enterprises in gradually accessing and integrating more deeply and sustainably into Nordic supply chains.
Reported by Phuong Lan
Việt Nam targets $1 billion in banana exports
Experts and businesses believe that with stronger investment, value-chain-based production and expanded export markets, banana exports could realistically approach the US$1 billion target.
Bananas have been identified as a priority product under the Project for the Development of Key Fruit Crops to 2025, with a vision to 2030, approved in October 2022. Under the plan, banana acreage is projected to reach 165,000–175,000ha by 2030, with output of 2.6–3 million tonnes.
Production will be concentrated in major growing regions such as the Red River Delta, the northern midlands and mountains, the North Central region, the South Central coast, the Central Highlands, the Southeast and the Mekong Delta.
Speaking at a forum organised on Saturday in HCM City to discuss solutions for preventing and controlling Panama disease in bananas, Associate Professor Dr Lê Quốc Doanh, former Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development and Chairman of the Việt Nam Gardening Association, said Việt Nam currently produces around 2.8 million tonnes of bananas each year. Banana acreage and yields have increased steadily, reflecting growing market demand and the sector’s expanding production capacity.
In 2024, banana exports generated about US$372–378 million, ranking fourth among Việt Nam’s fruit exports, after durian, dragon fruit and coconut. However, Doanh noted that this figure remains modest compared to the sector’s production scale and overall potential.
According to Nguyễn Quốc Mạnh, Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, total banana-growing area nationwide is expected to reach about 163,000–163,500ha by 2025, with output estimated at 2.75 million tonnes per year.
From a business perspective, Phạm Quốc Liêm, Chairman of U&I Agriculture Corporation, said the global banana market was valued at about $15.3 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach $21 billion by 2030. Although Việt Nam ranks ninth worldwide in banana production, export value remains relatively low at around $380 million.
He said that Vietnamese bananas hold less than 40 per cent market share in China, about 3 per cent in Japan and under 17 per cent in South Korea, despite favourable trade agreements and geographic proximity. These figures indicate significant room for growth.
Despite its strong prospects, the sector continues to face significant challenges. Mạnh said market information remains limited for producers, while prices fluctuate sharply, particularly for shipments that do not meet official export requirements. In addition, increasingly strict technical barriers in importing markets, especially related to plant quarantine and chemical residue limits, are placing greater pressure on both farmers and exporters.
Doanh identified plant disease as the most serious threat to the sector, with Panama disease posing the greatest risk. Caused by Fusarium fungus, the disease persists in the soil, spreads rapidly and can cause severe production losses. He stressed that focusing solely on disease control is insufficient, calling instead for a comprehensive strategy covering plant varieties, cultivation techniques, production organisation and market development.
Providing further scientific insight, Dr Trần Ngọc Hùng from the Fruit and Vegetable Research Institute said Panama disease in Việt Nam is caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense. The fungus survives for long periods in the soil, enters through plant roots and blocks the vascular system, leading to leaf yellowing, wilting and plant death. Its strong resistance to conventional fungicides makes chemical control largely ineffective.
Globally, Panama disease has severely affected banana production since the mid-20th century and remains a major threat, causing an estimated $1 billion in losses each year. In Việt Nam, the disease became widespread from 2016–2017, devastating many Cavendish banana-growing areas and forcing farmers to switch to other crops.
To curb its spread, Việt Nam has joined international cooperation programmes, including the Asia-Pacific Banana Network, while stepping up research and training.
“The most fundamental and sustainable solution is the development of disease-resistant banana varieties,” said Hùng.
Under the national seed programme to 2025, with a vision to 2030, priority has been given to breeding high-yield, high-quality varieties resistant to Panama disease. Several varieties have shown strong resistance, including UNI 126 developed by U&I Agriculture Corporation and Furi 5 from the Fruit and Vegetable Research Institute.
Experts at the forum agreed that with effective disease control, sustainable production restructuring and stronger value chains, Việt Nam’s banana sector has an opportunity to become a billion-dollar export industry in the near future.
The forum was jointly organised by the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, in coordination with the Agriculture and Environment newspaper and the Fruit and Vegetable Research Institute under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. VNS
Việt Nam’s pangasius exports surpass $2 billion
Việt Nam’s total pangasius export value has surpassed US$2 billion as of the end of November, an increase of nine per cent compared to the same period last year.
Pangasius exports reached $195 million in November, growing by nine per cent year-on-year.
This indicates a stable recovery trend in the industry during the final months of the year, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).
Regarding export markets, after a strong increase in October, China maintained a stable upward trend last month. Pangasius exports to China reached nearly $59 million, up 17 per cent compared year-on-year. This remains the largest contributor to exports for the month, continuing to lead pangasius export value.
Pangasius exports to the US reached $20 million last month, a year-on-year decrease of 23 per cent. This decline is attributed to the impact of the 20 per cent anti-dumping tax, which reduced the price competitiveness of Vietnamese pangasius in the US market. The declining trend started in August and has not shown signs of reversing.
Exports to the EU amounted to $12 million in November, a decrease of 25 per cent compared to the same period last year. The decline in the EU market is mainly due to two major markets, the Netherlands (down 18 per cent) and Germany (down 20 per cent). However, some other EU markets have shown mild growth.
Within the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) block, the UK market reached $5 million, a slight drop of four per cent compared to last year. This decline is less than in the previous two months, suggesting an early sign of recovery after a period of deep decrease.
Mexico continues to be a bright spot, with export value increasing sharply to $8 million, a 50 per cent rise. Meanwhile, Japan and Malaysia have maintained stable growth, with a slight increase of two per cent. Brazil’s export value reached $15 million in November, an increase of 13 per cent compared to the same period last year.
Frozen pangasius fillet exports reached over $1.6 billion, a year-on-year growth of 11 per cent from January to the end of November, continuing to represent the largest proportion of total exports.
The group of frozen pangasius, dried, whole fish and fish air bladders reached nearly $348 million of export value, matching last year’s figures.
Meanwhile, processed pangasius exports earned $48 million, an increase of 13 per cent compared to last year.
Entering 2026, the 20 per cent anti-dumping tax in the US is projected to continue to have an adverse effect, reducing the competitiveness of Vietnamese pangasius in this market, said VASEP.
This requires businesses to proactively expand exports to other markets, diversify products and focus more on deep-processed product lines, it suggested.
Achieving international sustainability certifications, at the same time, has become crucial to enhance the brand of Vietnamese pangasius, strengthening its competitive advantages in an increasingly price-competitive environment, it added. — VNS